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While measurements of the quantity of inoculum provide a good assessment of the progress of the epidemic, direct observation of inoculum is not always feasible or even possible. With most plant diseases, however, we can see some kind of symptoms that allow us to count the numbers of plants infected or estimate the amount of tissue infected. To be sure, there is a time lag between infection and the appearance of visible symptoms, and the manifestation of symptoms can be affected by the environmental conditions, but in general the progress of symptoms parallels the progress of inoculum production. Therefore, the same models that we have used to describe the buildup of inoculum also can be used to describe disease progress. We will follow the notation convention of Vanderplank (1963) and use x to represent the proportion of infected plants or the proportion of infected plant tissue. Using a dimensionless proportion between zero and one to represent disease makes the mathematics far simpler than using specific units, such as the total population of infected plants or the total area of infected tissue, for example. |
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