Contents

• Introduction
• Mathematical Concepts for Disease Forecasting
• Introduction to Plant Disease Forecasting
• Case Study #1: Simple Generic Infection Model
• Case Study #2: Development and Field Evaluation of a Model
• Case Study #3: Modeling Population Dynamics Nematodes
• Final Conclusions
• Suggested Quiz and Study Questions
• References

Esker, P.D., A.H. Sparks, L. Campbell, Z. Guo, M. Rouse, S.D. Silwal, S. Tolos, B. Van Allen, and K.A. Garrett, 2008. Ecology and Epidemiology in R: Disease Forecasting. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI:10.1094/PHI-A-2008-0129-01.

Ecology and Epidemiology in R: Disease Forecasting

Suggested Quiz and Study Questions

1. How does the temperature response function for the generic infection model respond to lower temperatures?

2. What is the primary inoculum of brown spot of pear?

3. When does the sexual phase of brown spot occur and how was maturity predicted?

4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the generic infection model?

5. What is it called when predictor variables in a multiple linear regression model are correlated to one another?

6. Which is better: a low true negative proportion (TNP) and high false negative proportion (FNP), or a high TNP and low FNP?

7. If a farmer plants sugar beet in the same field year after year, what can be done to reduce the number of nematodes (Heterodera schachtii) without using a nematicide?

8. In order to estimate the number of sugar beet cyst nematodes (Heterodera schachtii) in a field, what two key pieces of information are needed other than the number of nematodes at the end of the previous year?

9. When performing a backward elimination approach for multiple linear regression, what criteria does R use to determine the best model?

Student goal evaluation via scoring rubric