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Analysis of Epidemics Using Spatio-Temporal Autocorrelation. K. M. Reynolds, Postdoctoral research associate, The Ohio State University (OSU) and Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC), Wooster 44691; L. V. Madden, Associate professor, The Ohio State University (OSU) and Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC), Wooster 44691. Phytopathology 78:240-246. Accepted for publication 13 July 1987. Copyright 1988 The American Phytopathological Society. DOI: 10.1094/Phyto-78-240.

The theory of spatio-temporal (ST) autocorrelation analysis is summarized. Methods of epidemic analysis that are specific to agricultural systems in which temporal observations are made on disease values in a regular spatial lattice are presented. Techniques for calculating ST autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations are given; these statistics are then used in identifying the order of autoregressive and moving average terms that should be included in an ST transfer function that describes epidemic development in time and space. Spread of leather rot of strawberries is used as an example.