Disease-Prediction and Economic Models for Managing Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Disease in Lettuce. L. S. Yudin, Department of Entomology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu 96822. B. E. Tabashnik, J. J. Cho, and W. C. Mitchell. Department of Entomology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu 96822; Department of Plant Pathology, University of Hawaii, HITAHR-Maui Research, P.O. Box 269, Kula 96790; and Department of Entomology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu 96822. Plant Dis. 74:211-216. Accepted for publication 11 September 1989. Copyright 1990 The American Phytopathological Society. DOI: 10.1094/PD-74-0211.

We devised disease-prediction and economic models that enable growers with lettuce fields affected by tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) to make management decisions early in the planting cycle. Conditional probability and linear regression models based on field data were used to examine disease incidence at harvest as a function of early disease incidence and cumulative thrips abundance. Early disease incidence was a better predictor of disease incidence at harvest than thrips abundance. A grower’s economic return at various levels of TSWV incidence was estimated by incorporating expected disease incidence into an economic model.