Use of Climatic Parameters to Predict the Global Distribution of Ascochyta Blight on Chickpea. Marlene Diekmann, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria. . Plant Dis. 76:409-412. Accepted for publication 6 September 1991. Copyright 1992 The American Phytopathological Society. DOI: 10.1094/PD-76-0409.

Climatic data of areas where chickpea (Cicer arietinum) is grown were analyzed by stepwise discriminant analysis to identify parameters that allow a discrimination of locations with and without occurrence of Ascochyta blight (caused by Ascochyta rabiei). A discriminant function was computed, based on mean daily temperature in month 1 of the vegetation, mean precipitation in month 2, average precipitation per rainy day in months 1 and 2, and mean number of rainy days in months 1 and 2. This linear function can be used to predict the disease risk for various agrogeographical zones and growth seasons. The model can help to concentrate disease control measures, such as quarantine, on high-risk areas or identify low-risk areas or seasons for the production of healthy seed.