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Risk Analysis for Latent Infection of Prune by Monilinia fructicola in California

The quantitative relationships between incidence of latent infection (ILI) of prune by Monilinia fructicola and wetness duration (WD) for different bloom and fruit developmental stages and different inoculum concentrations were obtained. Three levels of ILI were considered as criteria for low, moderate, and high risks of latent infection, respectively. Seasonal patterns of WD leading to different risk levels of latent infection were obtained for low (IP_L) and high (IP_H) inoculum potential conditions in orchards. Longer WD was needed at a resistant than at a susceptible fruit developmental stage to induce similar levels of latent infection. The curves of WD leading to different levels of ILI over the growing season (risky WD curves) were used in risk analysis for latent infection. Multi-year historical WD data from 10 prune-growing locations in California were compared with risky WD curves. The percentage of days (P) with WD leading to a certain risk level of latent infection was calculated for each month from historical weather data. Under the IP_L condition, the P distributions for low risk of latent infection were higher in March and April than in May and were the lowest in June for most locations. Under the IP_H condition, the number of days that WD leading to low risk of latent infection in May increased compared with those under the IP_L condition. The risk analysis approach was evaluated by using separate experimental data as incidence of fruit brown rot obtained from different prune orchards over years. Consistency between predicted overall risk levels of latent infection and observed incidence of fruit brown rot was obtained. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the risk analysis in decision support system for disease management.